Jonathan is a hard sell in the Northwest

The attributes of integrity and incorruptibility are factors that could sway the votes in the entire North West geo-political zone in favour of Nigeria’s former military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari.

Mr Buhari who is aspiring for the presidency on the platform of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) will also be at home in the zone due to religious and ethnic considerations.

From Sokoto down to Zamfara, Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna and Kano States, the majority of the voting population who are adherents of the Islamic religion are most likely going to see Mr Buhari as one who will protect their constitutionally guaranteed rights to freedom of worship.

A pointer to this could be discerned going by the recent action of a prominent Islamic scholar and the Chief Imam of the Farfaru Juma’at in Sokoto State, Abubakar Jibril, who was caught allegedly defacing the campaign posters of President Goodluck Jonathan. The cleric who was accused of inciting public disturbance is now being detained at the Force Criminal Investigation Department in Abuja.

There are thousands of Mr Jibril all over the zone that is home to Islamic hardliners who may never sacrifice Mr Buhari for any of the presidential candidates. Even fellow Muslims like All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) presidential candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau, and Action Congress of Nigeria’s (ACN) Nuhu Ribadu, who are considered as upstarts, are unlikely going to reap from the dividends of this sentiment.

The writing on the wall

Shortly after the presidential primaries of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that saw the emergence of Mr Jonathan as the flag bearer of the party, the social media were awash with innuendos, branding all the northern governors who are adherents of the Islamic faith with labels such as “pope, pastor, reverend father, bishop, primate and evangelist,” all in a bid to portray them as those who have betrayed their brothers from the same faith.

Former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who led Kano State delegates to the Abuja PDP convention, has assumed a status of a folk hero in the state today for throwing his weight behind Mr Abubakar, based on the same religious and regional sentiments.

Ironically, Mr Kwankwaso was at the receiving end at the 2003 polls because he openly canvassed support for former President Olusegun Obasanjo who contested against Mr Buhari. At that time, the electorate not only branded Mr Kwankwaso as a “pharaoh”, they roundly tossed him out of power with ignominy.

Religion undoubtedly was used as one of the major tools by Mr Shekarau who defeated Mr Kwankwaso at the poll. Therefore, Mr Kwankwaso’s support for Mr Abubakar in the PDP Presidential primary election might not be unconnected with the lesson learnt in 2003.

In Kano State these days, campaign posters of Mr Jonathan are not common. Even the PDP chieftains vying for various positions avoid being associated with Mr Jonathan’s poster like a plague. Interestingly, in one of the strategic locations in Kano, NEXT observed a poster carrying the pictures of Mr Kwankwaso and that of Mr Buhari. In Jigawa State, the story is not different, as the state governor, Sule Lamido, was allegedly stoned in Hadejia town recently by youth who were not happy with the 100 percent support for Jonathan at the PDP Presidential Primary election.

Integrity is gain

The voters in Kano, just as in other parts of the zone, see in Mr Buhari someone who is not out to enrich himself to the detriment of the masses in Nigeria. While pointing at his no-nonsense stewardship as military head of state and as head of the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) as one of the golden eras of transparent and accountable governance in Nigeria, they believe that Nigeria still requires Mr Buhari’s services to correct the ills of the society.

Though the CPC is facing some organisational challenges in virtually all the states of the zone, it is unlikely to affect the prospect of Mr Buhari at the poll.

Muhammad Kabiru Gwangwazo is a leader of the CPC in Kano and was Mr Buhari’s campaign coordinator in 2003. He believes strongly that Mr Buhari will have an easy ride in the North West and the entire northern states.

“Even if Buhari didn’t campaign in the Northwest, he will win easily, because the people trust him; he has done before and will do it again if voted to power. I want to assure you that out of the over 18 million people that registered from the Northwest, Mr Buhari will get 15 million.” Rabiu Bako who is the Kano State Secretary of the ANPP disagrees with Mr Gwangwazo, saying that Mr Shekarau is the person that will win in the zone.

“If you look, the agitation of the majority is that they want change from the old people; they know Buhari, because he was there; they saw what he did and they don’t want him again. This is what the people are saying.

“Look, our candidate, Shekarau, is the best among these people. Look at what he has done in Kano in the last eight years, nobody has achieved this feat before. We want him to go and do the same at the federal level because this PDP government has failed Nigerians in the last 12 years.” For Mr Shekarau, no doubt he has done well in Kano State in the last eight years and he still enjoys mass appeal from the Kano populace, however, his major obstacle is that the ANPP is not popular in the North West because it is a PDP-dominated zone. In addition, he is a green horn politically in the zone. Although he has been governor of Kano in the last eight years, he cannot match the pedigree of Mr Buhari in the North West, who many perceive as incorruptible and has the common man in mind.

Notwithstanding, Mr Shekarau is still upbeat about his chances; that he can defeat an incumbent in the election. On a recent BBC programme, ‘Hard Talk,’ he made reference to how he defeated Mr Kwankwaso, an incumbent, in 2003.

Mr Buhari holds sway in Kano, as the electorate would massively vote for him irrespective of the party affiliation. Already, the CPC is making inroad in Kano and states like Jigawa and Kastina. However, Mr Shekarau will give him a good run in the state, because in 2007, Mr Shekarau won the election without Mr Buhari’s support.

For Mr Ribadu who is equally new in the field and perceived by many in the North West as having been used as a hunting dog by former president Obasanjo against his enemies, his chances in the Northwest look very slim. Majority in the zone believe that his party, the ACN, is a party that belongs to the Yorubas and as such, is not a national party.

Political observers are of the view that the CPC will win in the North West ahead of the ANPP and the PDP, though others have different views because of the influence of the vice president Namadi Sambo who is from the zone. By and large, given the current scenario, the voting pattern is not likely going to be different from that of all other previous elections held since 2003.

In 2003, Mr Buhari scored 80 percent of the estimated number of votes in Kano State against Mr Obasanjo who got less than 25 percent. It was the same in 2007 when Mr Buhari contested against late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua who incidentally hailed from Buhari’s Katsina State. Although the PDP got 25 percent as well in 2007, Mr Buhari still scored an estimated 75 percent of the total votes cast.

If this trend persists, Mr Buhari may just clinch the support of over 13 million out of 18 million votes in the April polls.